Trump wouldn’t have won in 2016 if the GOP leader hadn’t kept open Antonin Scalia’s Supreme Court seat.
By WSJ Editorial Board February 29, 2024
Mitch McConnell’s announcement Wednesday that he’ll step down in the autumn as Republican Senate leader is no great surprise at age 82. But those cheering his exit will miss the Kentucky Republican—and sooner than they might think.
“The end of my contributions are closer than I’d prefer,” Mr. McConnell said Wednesday on the Senate floor, reviewing his tenure that began in 1984 “amidst the Reagan Revolution.” He has run the GOP conference since 2007, a political lifetime ago, and his departure from leadership is a concession to the changing political times. He says he’ll finish his term, which expires in 2027, but step down as leader after the election.
The GOP leader’s influence in his own conference is waning. His support for aiding Ukraine—and for American leadership abroad—is no longer the zeitgeist in the Republican Party. The recent bipartisan border bill imploded on contact with Donald Trump’s campaign priorities. The sharks have been circling to pressure Mr. McConnell to depart, and Mr. Trump has never forgiven the leader for his speech condemning Mr. Trump’s behavior on Jan. 6.
The great irony of Mr. McConnell’s legacy is that the left hates him because he’s effective, which his own party often failed to appreciate. Mr. McConnell devoted considerable energy to building GOP majorities, raising money and trying to nominate candidates who could win. He also used those resources to drag weak candidates across the finish line—see J.D. Vance in Ohio in 2022.
Mr. McConnell’s most lasting accomplishment was remaking the federal judiciary. The leader’s refusal to allow a confirmation vote to replace the late Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court ahead of the 2016 election was a political gamble for the ages that took steely nerves and credibility with his GOP colleagues. Mr. Trump would not have won without that open Supreme Court seat as the motivation for millions of conservative voters.
The Senate confirmed some 234 judges during Mr. Trump’s term, including 54 circuit nominees and three Supreme Court Justices. In 2017 Mr. McConnell helped Neil Gorsuch win confirmation by finishing what Democrat Harry Reid had started: breaking the filibuster for judicial nominees.
“I say to my friends on the other side of the aisle, you will regret this, and you may regret it a lot sooner than you think,” Mr. McConnell warned Democrats in 2013. He was right. Mr. McConnell held his Members together against ferocious attacks on Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, and he quickly moved Justice Amy Coney Barrett through the Senate in 2020.
Mr. Trump will never admit it, but Mr. McConnell also did the heavy legislative lifting to pass Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax reform, and he came within a vote of repealing the Affordable Care Act. He has also been a stalwart supporter of the First Amendment against attacks disguised as “campaign-finance reform.”
We’ve had our differences with the Kentucky Senator over the years, especially on spending and his tolerance for omnibus appropriations bills and earmarks. But Mr. McConnell’s critics aren’t any more serious about spending restraint, especially on the giant entitlements. Mr. McConnell has long believed that reforming these programs will have to be bipartisan, which is probably right.
Give Mr. McConnell credit for bowing out with ample time for his colleagues to coalesce around a successor. Three capable possibilities are members of his leadership team: John Cornyn (Texas), John Barrasso (Wyo.) and John Thune (S.D.). But others may emerge, and the question is who can manage a conference that ranges from Susan Collins of blue-state Maine to the various Trump camp followers. A narrow Senate GOP majority could be the only check in 2025 on a second Biden term—or on a Trump retribution campaign.
For all the complaints about Mr. McConnell, no Senate leader since Lyndon Johnson has better understood how to use the upper chamber’s levers of power. Whatever the politics of the moment, he will be remembered as the conservative master of the Senate.